MLB Play of the Days (POD's):
92-42 (68.9%) +136.77 units of profit! (+$136,768)
Top Play (POD) 14-2 Last 16
We go with the Padres tonight coming off last nights 2nd POD loss in our last 16 efforts! We will try to rebound again like we did the last time we lost a POD to win 3 straight.
Clayton Richard vs. J.D. Martin, but this has little to do with my decision to make this my biggest play of the day. I will get to the reasons below, but I believe the pitching match up in the end won't decide this game, but rather the bullpens which are on the opposite sides of the spectrum and a huge advantage for the Padres here.
Let's go over Clayton Richard who has been excellent pitching in the pitcher's park in San Diego. He has a 2.08 ERA with 16K's in 17.1 IP at home, but has given up 10 BB so his control is a bit of a concern, but I'm not too worried as the Nationals have scored 8 runs in their last 4 games and sit at 0-4 without Nyjer Morgan a big part of their offensive progress. So now they are without 3 big players who were in their lineup less than a month ago. Austin Kearns, Morgan, and Nick Johnson. Nationals are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. LH starter while the Padres who face a RH starter are 5-1 in their last 6. The Nationals have never played well out west in SD as they are 8-24 in their last 32 games out here. Richard who gave up 6 ER in his last start only threw 61 pitches and is primed for a bounce back start against a poor hitting team!
J.D. Martin has not been terrible, and has good control with just 3 BB in 17 IP and 17H on the road this year. However in 8 career starts this year he has only averaged 4.875 innings pitched per start. This is a huge problem which leads to the bullpen. Martin coming off a season high 103 pitches is primed for a let down here today which can only lead to the horrific bullpen sooner rather than later.
On to the bullpens. Let's see the Nationals bullpen in the last 3 has an ERA of 6.98, and over their last 5 it has a 9.53 ERA and a 6.97 over their last 10. That's not a short snapshot as the bullpen has a 6.02 ERA on the road this season. Compare that to the Padres who have a ERA in their last 5 of 2.50, 2.45 over their last 10 and at home this year their bullpen has an ERA of 2.81. I like the way the Padres are hitting right now despite not having a great year with the bats they have hit better as of late and I like them to force Martin who threw a lot of pitches in his last start out of this game very early!
